Houston Housing Market Forecast 2025–2026: What Owners & Tenants Need to Know

December 2025 — The greater Houston rental market is entering a new phase after three years of extremely tight inventory. Here’s the data-driven outlook for landlords, investors, and tenants across Houston, The Woodlands, Conroe, Spring, Lake Conroe, and Montgomery County.

1. Rent Growth Is Slowing — But Still Positive

After averaging 8–12% annual increases from 2021–2024, we project:

2025: +3.8% to +5.2% average rent growth across the metro
2026: +3.0% to +4.5%

Submarkets like The Woodlands and Cypress will stay on the higher end, while older parts of inner Houston will see the slowest growth.

Key takeaway for owners: Rents are still rising faster than inflation and wages — but the days of 10%+ automatic increases are over for most properties.

2. Inventory Is Finally Rising (Good for Tenants)

Single-family rental vacancy in Harris & Montgomery Counties: 7.1% (up from 4.3% in 2023)
Days on market for new leases: 28 days (vs 11 days two years ago)
New construction deliveries in 2025–2026: ~19,000 new units

3. Section 8 / HCV Payment Standards – Big News for 2025–2026

2-bedroom FMR now $1,890 (Harris) and $1,950 (Montgomery) — up ~9% YoY
3-bedroom up to $2,450–$2,620 depending on ZIP

Landlords who accept Section 8 will continue to see above-market rents with 98–100% on-time payment guaranteed.

4. Hot Submarkets vs Cooling Areas (2025–2026)

Area	Expected Rent Growth	Vacancy Trend
Lake Conroe / Willis	↑ 6–9%	Still very low
The Woodlands	↑ 5–7%	Rising slowly
Spring / Tomball	↑ 4–6%	Balanced
Conroe proper	↑ 3–5%	Rising
Inner-loop Houston (pre-1990)	↑ 1–3%	Highest vacancy

What This Means for Property Owners

Focus on tenant retention — renewal incentives beat turnover costs
Minor upgrades (LVP flooring, paint, fixtures) still justify top-of-market rents
Section 8 remains one of the strongest performing asset classes in the region

What This Means for Tenants

More leverage to negotiate concessions or reduced deposits
Single-family homes are now realistic in many suburbs
Act fast on Lake Conroe & The Woodlands — they still lease quickly

Want to start accepting Section 8 in 2026?

We handle the entire process — from registration to inspections to guaranteed rent.
Get Your Property Section 8 Ready

We’ll update this forecast quarterly. Bookmark and check back in March 2026 for the latest numbers.

Houston Housing Market Forecast 2025–2026What Owners & Tenants Need to Know